It may or may not surprise you to hear that just over 50 percent of politico in the UK can serve a canonical probability head correctly . think it or not , that physical body is actually up from when politician were asked the same inquiry 10 year ago .
The results fall from a new resume by theRoyal Statistical Societythat ask 101 members of fantan ( military policeman ) in the UK a relatively simple statistics question : if you toss a coin twice , what is the chance of commence two heads ?
The probability of getting heads on one coin flip is 50 per centum . Since two tosses are independent case , you should multiply the two probabilities : 50 percent times 50 pct , which gives you the result of 25 percent .
However , just 52 pct ofsurveyedMPs give the right answer , with around 32 percent giving the incorrect answer of 50 percent .
Interestingly , politicians who have been in power for longer were more likely to provide the right answer than those recently elected . Up to 68 percent of MPs who jump in office between 2001 and 2009 gave the correct resolution , compare to 38 percent of military policeman elected in 2019 .
Although a skimming through the news may suggest otherwise , thing have in reality improved over the past X . Asimilar surveycarried out in 2011 asked 97 MPs the same inquiry and just 40 percent of military policeman gave the right result .
For the latest 2021/2022 sketch , politicians were also asked another statistics question : you wrap a six - sided die , and the rolls are 1,3,4,1 and 6 . What are the meanspirited and mode time value ? Just 64 percent were able to identify that the average value was three and 63 percent know the mood was one .
A third head tested their knowledge about statistics that could be easily applied to the COVID-19 pandemic ( that thing they ’ve been in charge ofsorting outfor two years ) . The interrogation went as pursue : suppose there was a symptomatic mental testing for a virus . The false - prescribed rate ( the proportion of masses without the virus who get a positive termination ) is one in 1,000 . You have taken the trial and test positive . What is the probability that you have the virus ?
To answer this question aright , you ask to havethree pieces of fundamental info : the false - positivistic charge per unit , the false - negative pace , and viral prevalence , yet the doubt only allow for one of these statistic . Just16 pct of the political leader turn over the right answer of “ Not enough selective information to know . ”
“ Statistical science are lively for good conclusion - making and effective examination . While we ’re proud of to see that it looks like MPs ’ noesis in this arena has improved , the sight results spotlight that more need to be done to control our elected representatives have the statistical skill needed for the job , ” Stian Westlake , Chief Executive of the Royal Statistical Society , tell in astatement .
